After a top-half finish in 2023/24, Coventry City endured a frustrating start to the 2024/25 campaign.
Mark Robins was sacked in early November with the club languishing in the bottom half of the division, ending the longest active managerial tenure in the Championship.
Frank Lampard was hired as Robins’ replacement. Lampard has three draws, three wins, and three defeats in the Championship since then, but the Midlands club are still 16th and 11 points off the playoff spots.
Premier League Ambitions
Coventry wouldn’t be the first team to recover from a torrid first half of a season to surge into the top six. They did so themselves in 2022/23 before losing the Playoff final to Luton – the Tractor Boys were heavy favourites for the drop in Premier League odds after promotion and were ultimately relegated the first time of asking.
In 2021/22, Nottingham Forest were 18th at the start of November but had the best record in the league from then on to earn a playoff spot. After winning the playoff final, Forest have avoided relegation despite often being among the favourites in Premier League relegation odds. They are somehow fighting for a Champions League spot in 2024/25.
All this is to say it’s not far-fetched that Coventry earn promotion this season. Yes, the jury is still out on Lampard as a manager, but he took Derby County to the playoff final in 2019 and did some good work at Chelsea and Everton despite largely mediocre tenures.
Reason For Hope
Beyond Lampard’s limited Championship track record, Coventry have reasons to be optimistic in the second half of this campaign. They have been unfortunate so far this season.
Leeds and Middlesbrough are the only teams with a better expected goal difference per 90 minutes.
The attack has underperformed, scoring 34 goals from 40.5 xG. The goalkeeping has been poor – Coventry’s goalkeepers have the worst Post-Shot Expected Goals minus Goals Allowed in the Championship.
Ben Wilson and Bradley Collins have been woeful between the sticks. Keeping their first-choice goalkeeper fit is a necessity if they are to put together a run. Luckily, Wilson and Collins should see limited minutes throughout the remainder of the campaign.
At the other end of the pitch, a proven goalscorer would be a massive boost. Haji Wright is the only player with more than four league goals. In his first season at this level, it’s a big ask for Ephron Mason-Clark to replicate his tally of 21 goal involvements from last term.
In the top four in passes into the final third, passes into the penalty area, and key passes, creativity doesn’t look to be an issue. Converting chances, rather than creating them, is the problem.
Upwardly Mobile Sky Blues
Coventry have the talent to be a top-six team this season. Their expected statistics suggest the first few months of this season are an outlier, but the poor goalkeeping performances have cost them dearly and given them serious ground to make up in 2025.
The creative metrics are strong across the board. Lampard cannot suddenly make his team into reliable finishers, so it will be fascinating to see if any moves are made in the January window. Alternatively, they may have to wait until summer to pick up another forward.
Despite negligible improvement since Lampard took over at the end of November, the process has been good, just as it was under Robins. Coventry are a prime candidate to rapidly climb the table. Don’t be surprised if they’re in the playoff mix in April.
Written by Ben Spencer.
